Shock Dem has lead for first time over Republican JD Vance in 2028 prez poll
Nobody had that on their bingo card.
A new poll shockingly shows ultra-liberal Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with a slight lead over GOP Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 matchup for president.
Democratic socialist Ocasio-Cortez, of New York, edges Vance out 51% to 49% in a new survey from The Argument/Verasight, per Newsweek.
The result is within the poll’s 2.7% margin of error, meaning that AOC and Vance are statistically tied.
The poll asked voters who they would vote for if Vance and Ocasio-Cortez were the major party candidates for president.
Newsweek said that the fact that Ocasio-Cortez holds even a slight lead over Vance in the poll suggests that the 2028 open-seat race for the White House could be very competitive.
The survey result also suggests that neither party has a clear advantage in the next presidential contest and that progressive Democrats remain a viable national force.
Vance is more popular than AOC among white voters, the survey said, with 57% saying they would vote for him versus 43% who would support the Democratic congresswoman.
Ocasio-Cortez, however, had a wide lead among Black voters (79%) and Hispanic voters (64%)
Vance is seen as the favorite for the 2028 GOP nomination for president, with President Donald Trump saying that Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a potent ticket for the GOP.
Ocasio-Cortez has also been mentioned as a potential challenger for the 2028 Democratic Party nod for the White House.
While she polls well with younger voters, AOC overall lags behind California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris in most 2028 surveys.
Vance and Newsom have long been the favorites for their respective party nominations with gamblers who are placing legal bets on the 2028 race.
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prohibits Trump from seeking a third term in office.
The poll of 1,521 registered voters was conducted between Dec. 5 and 11.
Voters may be rethinking everything: 2028 US Presidential polls reveal a stunning shift
Synopsis
US Presidential 2028 polls: Early 2028 presidential polling indicates a statistically tied hypothetical matchup between Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and JD Vance, with Ocasio-Cortez holding a narrow 51% to 49% lead. The poll, conducted by The Argument/Verasight, highlights significant demographic divides, with Vance leading among white voters and Ocasio-Cortez strong with Black and Hispanic voters.
By Shreya Biswas, Global Desk
Last Updated: Dec 20, 2025, 06:40:00 PM IST
US Presidential 2028 polls: The 2028 US presidential election may still be years away, but early polling suggests voters are already challenging long-held assumptions about who could lead the next race for the White House.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vs JD Vance: A Close 2028 Matchup
A recent poll by The Argument/Verasight shows Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holding a narrow edge over Republican Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, as per a report. The survey found Ocasio-Cortez leading Vance 51% to 49%, as per a SILive.com report.
The difference falls within the poll’s 2.7% margin of error, meaning the two candidates are statistically tied. While, the result is striking given that Vance is widely viewed as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, while Ocasio-Cortez represents the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
The survey was conducted between December 5 and December 11 and included responses from 1,521 registered voters, offering an early glimpse into how fluid and unpredictable the 2028 presidential race may become.
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What the 2028 Poll Asked Voters
The poll asked registered voters who they would support if Vance and Ocasio-Cortez were the major-party nominees. The close result suggests the 2028 open-seat race could be highly competitive and that neither party currently holds a clear advantage, as per the SILive.com report.
Voter Divide Emerges Across Demographic Groups
The findings also highlight sharp divides among voting groups. Vance performed better among white voters, with 57% saying they would support him compared with 43% for Ocasio-Cortez. By contrast, Ocasio-Cortez showed strong support among Black voters, with 79% backing her, and Hispanic voters, where she led with 64%.
JD Vance Seen as GOP Front-Runner for 2028
Vance is considered the favorite for the 2028 GOP nomination, with US president Donald Trump previously saying that Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a strong Republican ticket. Trump himself is barred from seeking another term under the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution.
JD Vance Seen as GOP Front-Runner for 2028
Ocasio-Cortez has also been mentioned as a possible contender for the Democratic nomination. While she polls well with younger voters, broader surveys show her trailing California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris in most 2028 matchups, as per the SILive.com report.
Betting Markets Add to 2028 Election Buzz
Gamblers placing legal bets on the race have long viewed Vance and Newsom as the leading contenders for their respective party nominations, as per the report.
FAQs
What does the latest 2028 poll show?
It shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez narrowly leading JD Vance in a hypothetical matchup.
